"US ADP employment data" is also known as small non-farm:

It is a monthly indicator compiled by the American Automatic Data Processing Company ADP to measure changes in non-farm employment in the U.S. private sector. The data is collected from approximately 500,000 anonymous U.S. companies and reflects the employment situation in the United States.

Data impact:

If the published value is greater than the expected value, it is good for the US economy and the US dollar, but bad for non-US

1. Today’s hot topics: McCarthy was removed from office

The House voted 216 to 210 that morning, ending McCarthy's tenure as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives by a narrow margin, making him the shortest-serving Speaker of the House in 147 years.

A few days before the recall, the US government faced a shutdown, but a reversal occurred at the last moment. McCarthy submitted a temporary bill to avoid the shutdown and was given another 45 days to operate. This recall undoubtedly put the risk of a shutdown in mid-November Increase, for the currency market, the biggest impact is the impact of the data on the interest rate hike in December. (The probability of raising interest rates in November is basically very slim, and the December interest rate hike meeting and financial report are the top priorities)

2. US stocks
U.S. stocks are an unavoidable weather vane in the financial market. As the global economy integrates, the U.S. economy still maintains its dominant position. U.S. stocks can objectively reflect the heat of the global market.

Lao Ai personally likes to refer to the index SPX S&P 500. It has been in a correction trend since July. It will be considered strong only if it can stand above 4,300 in the short term, and it will end the correction only if it stands above 4,400, continuing the long bull trend of US stocks.

Because the pressure on the energy and labor markets has directly led to the continued rise in prices, the Bank of Japan maintained its policy of keeping the original interest rate unchanged last month. I remember Brother Yan seemed to say that now is the time for the whole world to come together to mess up the institutions. Without investment, the middle class will not build, and will ruin along with the bottom class. Deeply agree. Under the current circumstances, the liquidity of the US market is the wind direction of the risk market. The U.S. market chooses to take profits or avoid risks, but before the crypto market has positive market capitalization (such as the BlackRock ETF interest rate cut), it is difficult for liquidity to return to the currency circle.

3. Federal Reserve

The Fed's recent statements have been relatively hawkish, especially for the currency market. With the continued extension of the BTC spot ETF, the ETH futures ETF has been expected by the market and will not cause much emotional fluctuations at all. Whether the futures ETF is

Neither#Ethnor#Ethcan change the current shortage of liquidity, market makers leaving the market, and insufficient capital liquidity. The frequent draws on the market in recent months can be seen from the slightest news, which will rise or fall. However, this situation often occurs frequently. When the market is going strong, it is also when the market is about to come. For long-term investors, 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.2 are all entry points for dips.

4. Technical aspect

(Cyclic traders need to pay more attention to the long-term cost position, short-term traders can follow Lao Ai’s early trading ideas every day)

Pay attention to the support situation of 2.66 during the day, which is also a strong and weak level. If it falls below, it will weaken. The daily level support will be 2.6-2.61 again. If it falls below, the rebound will end. The upper pressure is 2.78 during the day, and the callback ends at 2.82. The target is the C point 2.96 that has been waiting for more than a month.

5. ADP

What we are experiencing now is a global sell-off, not just in U.S. Treasuries, not just gold, not just global currencies. But the market also has risks before opportunities arise. There are only a few core assets that can be obtained, and BTC and gold are one of them. Even if the economy gets worse, it can still survive the bulls and bears.

Employment last month was 177,000, and it is currently expected to drop to 153,000 this month. Non-agricultural employment was 187,000 last month, and it is expected to be 163,000 this month. The unemployment rate is also expected to drop from 3.8% to 3.7%.

Employment data is nothing more than bad now or will be bad in the future. Employment is not only a reference for the Federal Reserve to decide whether to raise interest rates, but also a sign of whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession. In recent months, the U.S. unemployment rate has been at The lowest level in modern history, although it is good for the U.S. economy, but for the Federal Reserve, which is bent on fighting inflation, because it cannot solve inflation from the supply side, it can only suppress purchasing power from the demand side to force the supply side to cut prices. Low unemployment and high Wage growth is the biggest obstacle to implementing this plan.

From the technical perspective combined with the news aspect, market funds are anticipating risks in advance. When the data comes out, it will depend on the strength of the day. If it stands above 2.78, it is strong. If it breaks through 2.8, it can be considered to end the correction, and continue to look at the next target around 2.96. On the contrary, falling below 2.66 is a sign of weakness, which will have little impact on cyclical traders. Short-term day traders only need to focus on key positions to make trading plans. An increase in data may not mean an increase, but price action is!

(PS: There has been no fluctuation in the market after the data was released many times. It is wrong to pay too much attention to the direction of rise and fall. Pay attention to the trading volume before and after the data)