The first quarter of 2026 may be a window of opportunity for risk-seeking investors
According to VanEck's latest outlook report, as clarity increases in U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, the first quarter of 2026 could see a market environment favorable to risk-seeking investors.
This forecast is primarily based on the declining U.S. fiscal deficit as a share of GDP and the increasingly clear direction of monetary policy, which helps stabilize long-term interest rates, reduce market risks, and create a clearer macro environment for risk assets.
Although the overall market outlook is optimistic, Bitcoin's short-term prospects remain complex. According to VanEck's report, Bitcoin's inherent four-year cycle was broken in 2025, making short-term market signals more difficult to interpret.
Since the large-scale deleveraging in October last year, while market bubbles have been partially cleared, Bitcoin's recent price movements have decoupled from traditional assets such as U.S. stocks and gold, indicating that investors should remain vigilant over the next 3 to 6 months.
However, the general market consensus is that as the U.S. midterm elections approach, fiscal stimulus, a loose monetary environment, and potential positive regulatory adjustments will collectively create a risk-friendly macro environment, benefiting the market in the first half of the year.
Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and the overall optimistic sentiment toward risk assets provide momentum for cryptocurrencies and reinforce their status as risk assets.
Technical analysis also supports a cautiously optimistic view. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's current price is hovering around a key support zone, indicating that upward momentum is building in the market. If Bitcoin successfully breaks through the critical resistance level of $92,000, it could rebound into the six-figure range in the short term.
In summary, the current market is in a macro environment clearly favorable to risk assets. After the significant correction since the end of last year, Bitcoin is now in a phase of bubble deflation and indicator recovery.
While the long-term outlook remains optimistic, Bitcoin's short-term price movement will depend on its ability to leverage the prevailing macro risk appetite to break through key technical resistance levels, thereby aligning its upward momentum with that of traditional markets.
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