techrisk

$BTC OPENAI ENTERS “TOO BIG TO FAIL” MODE 🚨
OpenAI’s massive investment (~$1.4B for 30 GW by end of 2025) ends the bubble/non-bubble debate — AI is now systemically critical.
WHAT CHANGES:
– Narrative shifts → financial viability becomes central
– AI players become highly interdependent
– OpenAI emerges as an acknowledged systemic risk
THE HEART OF THE PROBLEM:
– Projected revenues: ~$155B ARR by 2030
– Structurally deficit model → negative cash flow, accumulated deficit ~$971B (2025–2030)
– Every $1 earned → $3 spent
– Permanent reliance on external financing
CHANNELS OF CONTAGION:
– Rising cost of capital → AI valuation compression
– Potential domino effect on NVIDIA & Microsoft
– Regulatory pressure linked to public aid
– Physical constraints: energy & water
– Monetization still non-scalable
THE AI DILEMMA:
– Success → macroeconomic tensions
– Failure → massive devaluations
– Either way → systemic risk
THE ROTATION:
– Unprofitable pure-play AIs penalized
– Profitable, essential infrastructure favored (energy, memory, utilities)
– AI exposure occurs via profitable bricks
CONCLUSION:
– OpenAI is now a central point of fragility
– High contagion risk if shock occurs
– Likely public intervention
– Stability preserved, returns under pressure
#AI #OpenAI #TechRisk #SystemicRisk