#NFP U.S. Labor Market Report (Non-Farm Payrolls - NFP) for December 2025, scheduled to be released tomorrow, Friday, January 9, 2026, is considered the first relatively clean major report following last year's disruptions.
Main expectations:
Non-farm payroll additions: around 60,000–70,000 jobs (average around 66,000). This is lower than the previous month (November: +64,000), reflecting a continued slowdown in the labor market.
Unemployment rate: a slight decrease to 4.5% (from 4.6% in November).
Average hourly earnings growth: approximately +0.3% month-over-month, and **+3.6–3.7% year-over-year**.
Previous indicators:
The private sector report
#ADP (released yesterday) showed only 41,000 jobs added in December, below expectations (49,000), suggesting a potential weakness in the official report, especially as hiring is concentrated in medium-sized companies.
The U.S. labor market has shown a clear slowdown since 2025, with lower average job additions compared to previous years, but without a sharp collapse (a "low-hire, low-fire" pattern).
Potential impact:
If the report comes in stronger than expected: supports the dollar and reduces expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
If the report comes in weaker than expected: strengthens expectations of an additional rate cut, putting downward pressure on the dollar and supporting stocks and gold.
The markets are closely watching this report as the first test of the U.S. economy in 2026, especially with the Federal Reserve focusing on balancing inflation and employment.