accumulation

Date: February 26, 2026
Featured Assets: $XRP $ETH
Trader Profile (Simulated): ROI 15.2% over the last 30 days | Watching XRP closely for structural bottom confirmation
📈 1. Overview: Resilience at Key Support
XRP has been struggling to mount a consistent recovery in recent weeks, but it continues to defend a crucial support level . Despite repeated tests of lower ranges, the altcoin has avoided a deeper breakdown—a sign that accumulation may be taking place behind the scenes .
Trading at $1.43 at the time of writing, XRP remains above the critical 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which historically acts as a bear market support floor . Holding above this level suggests limited selling pressure in the short term .
Infographic: XRP by the Numbers (02/26)
Indicator/Current /Status Signal

📉 2. Deep Dive: What the On-Chain Data Reveals
2.1. NUPL: Exiting Capitulation, Nearing a Turning Point
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator shows that XRP is in a capitulation phase, but not deeply so . The metric hovers near the zero line, indicating that investor losses are diminishing and the market is approaching a neutral condition rather than extreme loss realization .
Historically, XRP has spent extended periods in capitulation zones—sometimes exceeding one month—before price recoveries begin once selling pressure exhausts . The current cycle is approaching this one-month threshold, suggesting a potential turning point .
2.2. Mean Coin Age (MCA): Long-Term Holders Are Accumulating
The Mean Coin Age (MCA) offers deeper insight into holder behavior . Before a potential rally, long-term XRP holders have maintained an accumulation posture rather than distribution . Rising MCA values indicate that coins are staying in wallets instead of being spent or sold .
Except for a minor dip, long-term holders have remained constructive, reducing circulating supply pressure . The persistence of these investors often supports structural recovery processes over time .
2.3. Derivatives Market: Leverage Cleared, Sentiment Shifting
Derivatives data aligns with spot market behavior . Funding rates for XRP have shifted from deeply negative to slightly positive territory over the past three weeks .
A positive funding rate reflects long positioning dominating shorts, indicating growing confidence among traders . Increasing long exposure tends to generate upward pressure as demand strengthens with leveraged positions .
Critically, XRP's leverage has "collapsed" to approximately 0.16—a level not seen since early 2025 . This represents roughly a 70% reduction from peak levels last year . Analyst Steph Is Crypto noted that "most speculative traders are officially wiped out" .
This deleveraging event has removed market fragility. Without a large cluster of overextended positions vulnerable to forced selling, the likelihood of abrupt volatility events diminishes . The current environment is characterized by steadier trading ranges as the market recalibrates .
2.4. Whale Activity: Mixed Signals
Recent data shows over 31 million XRP transferred to Binance, raising concerns about potential sell pressure . However, broader whale activity tells a more nuanced story:
Accumulation spike: Massive buying by whale investors has been observed, with buy orders consistently outpacing sell orders .Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD): Indicates a significant imbalance favoring buyers, driven by well-capitalized market participants .Whale wallets holding 1,000+ BTC (correlated market move) increased from 1,207 to 1,303 since October, deploying approximately $3.6 billion .
As one analyst noted: "The price drops that destroyed portfolios were designed to transfer wealth from the many to the few. Whales don't panic. They cause the panic. Then they buy what everyone else drops" .
2.5. Institutional Interest: Muted but Steady
XRP spot ETFs sustained a second consecutive day of inflows, totaling $3.09 million on Wednesday . The Bitwise XRP ETF led with $2.3 million, followed by Franklin Templeton's XRPZ with approximately $796,000 .
Cumulative inflows now stand at $1.24 billion, with net assets under management at $1.06 billion . However, net assets remain significantly below January's record of $1.65 billion .
Singapore-based exchange Bitrue reported a sharp increase in XRP activity, with spot purchase volumes surging 212% and buy orders outpacing sell orders by more than two-to-one . The exchange noted that the combination of retail and institutional demand could create supply pressure in Q2 .
2.6. The "Fourth Phase" Thesis: Technical Structure Improving
Some analysts suggest XRP may be entering a "fourth phase" bullish structure following its breakout from a multi-year symmetrical triangle . The price has since retraced to test the trendline—a technical confirmation often seen before trend continuation .
The 14-day RSI has recovered to around 44, exiting oversold territory and showing reduced selling pressure, though not yet entering clear bullish territory . A daily close above $1.54 would weaken the current bearish bias and potentially expose the next resistance zone near $1.63 (50-day EMA) .
🧠 3. Educational Guide: Key On-Chain Metrics Explained
The XRP analysis above references several specialized metrics. Here's a quick breakdown:
3.1. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
NUPL measures the difference between relative unrealized profit and loss across all coins . Values near zero indicate that investors are neither in extreme profit nor extreme loss—often a transition zone between market phases. XRP currently hovers near zero, suggesting we're exiting deep capitulation .
3.2. Mean Coin Age (MCA)
MCA tracks the average age of all coins in circulation based on their last movement . When MCA rises, coins are being held longer, reducing selling pressure. When it falls, coins are moving, often indicating distribution. XRP's MCA is rising, signaling accumulation by long-term holders .
3.3. Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR)
ELR measures the ratio of open interest to exchange reserves . High leverage increases market fragility; low leverage indicates speculative traders have been cleared out. XRP's ELR at 0.16 suggests a reset, with price action now more likely driven by spot demand .
3.4. Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD)
CVD tracks the net difference between buying and selling volume . Positive CVD indicates aggressive buying pressure. Recent XRP data shows CVD favoring buyers, driven by whales .
3.5. Funding Rate
Funding rates are periodic payments between long and short traders in perpetual futures markets . Positive rates mean longs pay shorts (bullish sentiment); negative rates mean shorts pay longs (bearish sentiment). XRP funding has shifted from negative to slightly positive, indicating growing confidence .
📊 4. Trade Setup: XRP Levels to Watch
Current Technical Structure
Support: $1.40 (immediate), $1.31 (weekly low), $1.25 (October low) Resistance: $1.53–$1.54 (recent reaction high), $1.62–$1.63 (50-day EMA/Fib 61.8%), $1.69 (major resistance) MACD: Above signal line but below zero—improving but fragile momentum RSI: ~44 on daily, recovering but still below midline 
Bullish Scenario
A daily close above $1.54 would weaken bearish bias and could lead to a test of $1.62–$1.63 Converting the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($1.62) into support would confirm a recovery phase Some analysts target $2.00 (36% upside) if momentum continues 
Bearish Scenario
Failure to break $1.53–$1.54 could extend consolidation Loss of $1.40 support could lead to a retest of $1.31 and potentially $1.25 Without increased demand, XRP may trade sideways until broader market improves 
Strategic Play (Risk-Managed)
Accumulation Zone: $1.30–$1.40 (long-term holder range)Entry for Momentum Traders: Above $1.54 with volume confirmationStop-Loss: Below $1.30 (structural invalidation)Take-Profit Targets: $1.63, $1.69, $2.00 
The XRP market today tells a story of transition. Short-term speculation has been flushed out . Leverage is at one-year lows . Long-term holders are accumulating . Whales are showing interest . Institutional flows, while muted, remain steady .
As one analyst put it: "XRP appears to be transitioning from a leverage-driven market to one driven by genuine spot demand. Whether that shift becomes the foundation for a recovery or an extended consolidation phase will likely depend on broader crypto market strength and renewed buying interest" .
Now I want to hear from you: Are you accumulating XRP at these levels, or waiting for confirmation above $1.54? Do you believe the "fourth phase" bullish structure is playing out? Drop your strategy in the comments—let's discuss!
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