๐บ๐ธ๐ FED WATCH UPDATE โ JAN 28 FOMC
This meeting could set the tone for the entire quarter.
๐ Markets are now pricing a 95% probability that the Fed HOLDS rates at the Jan 28 FOMC
โฌ๏ธ Up from ~70% just one month ago (CME FedWatch)
โ What changed?
๐ Strong December jobs report
๐ Economic resilience forcing rate-cut expectations further out
The message is getting clearer โ and tougher.
๐ง THE MACRO SIGNAL IS LOUD
This is no longer about cuts vs hikes.
Itโs about how long pressure stays on the system.
๐ WHAT THIS MEANS FOR MARKETS
๐ โHigher for longerโ is being locked in
๐ Near-term rate cuts keep disappearing
๐ Liquidity stays tight โ risk assets become headline-sensitive
โ ๏ธ At this stage:
Forward guidance > the actual decision
One sentence from Powell can move trillions.
โ ๏ธ MARKET IMPACT โ WHAT TO WATCH
Markets are trapped between two risks:
๐น Strong data
โข Rate cuts delayed further
โข Risk assets under pressure
โข Dollar strength returns
๐น Weak data
โข Recession fears spike
โข Volatility explodes
โข Markets panic before policy reacts
โก๏ธ Either way: VOLATILITY IS COMING around Fed communication.
๐ TICKERS ON ALERT
โก $CLO
$HYPER $ZEREBRO
โ When liquidity is tight, positioning & timing matter most.
๐ฅ BOTTOM LINE
The Fed isnโt pivoting yet.
The market is slowly accepting it.
This phase isnโt about moonshots ๐ซ
Itโs about survival, positioning, and patience
๐ Watch the language
โณ Watch the tone
Thatโs where the real signal is.
#FED #FOMC #Markets #Liquidity #WriteToEarnUpgrade ๐ฅ
If you want, I can