Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the U.S. dollar (USD), traditionally regarded as the 'safe-haven asset' in markets, is not showing the conventional reactions seen historically.
Meanwhile, gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) are moving far beyond typical commodity surges.
Gold hits new highs, silver surges—markets are on alert for risks exceeding inflation
Instead, capital is clearly flowing into tangible assets, with gold approaching $5,000 and silver surpassing $80. These levels are prompting investors to reevaluate traditional macroeconomic assumptions.
Garrett Gogin, a gold-related stock analyst, pointed out this anomaly. Historically, during periods of U.S. military escalation, investors have sought the safe-haven U.S. dollar, causing it to rise almost without exception. However, this time it was the opposite.
'Previously, when bombs were dropped, the dollar surged. But now it's different,' Gogin said, highlighting that gold and silver have surged while the dollar has sharply declined.
Indeed, gold and silver surged on the Monday when the 'God Candle' lit up. The U.S. Dollar Index plummeted to 98.53 as of this writing. This divergence suggests growing skepticism toward the dollar's role as a geopolitical hedge.
The movement itself is historic. Economist and long-time advocate of precious metals, Peter Schiff, noted that gold has broken through $4,560 for the first time and is approaching $5,000.
Moreover, silver has surpassed $84, showing relative strength not seen in decades. It is rare for both precious metals to simultaneously reach new highs—an occurrence typically associated with severe financial crises or systemic risks.
Analysts argue that the rise in silver is not merely speculative. Dario, co-founder and COO of Synnax, points out that silver has entered contango—a situation where futures prices temporarily exceed spot prices—which may signal an inflow of real demand from major corporations and industry.
According to Dario, such movements suggest companies are hedging against potential future supply shortages and rising costs. This is not overheating from short-term speculation, but demand driven by the real economy.
The rise in gold and silver may represent a delayed revaluation.
Due to this surge, the long-standing debate over price suppression in the precious metals market has reignited. Kip Heliard cites JP Morgan's 2020 penalty for market manipulation as a turning point, arguing that gold and silver have been artificially suppressed for years.
According to Heliard, prices bottomed out after that event, and genuine price discovery has finally begun. Therefore, the current price levels are not a bubble, but rather a delayed reflection of the true underlying price correction.
'In truth, gold and silver should have been at this level a decade ago,' he stated.
Beyond market structure, Heliard also highlights the convergence of political and financial factors. He suggests that a basket combining gold, silver, and Bitcoin could potentially serve as backing assets for a portion of future U.S. long-term Treasury bonds. This would fundamentally alter the structure of the bonds themselves and permanently increase demand for scarce assets.
While this hypothesis is speculative, it reflects a deeper desire to rebuild fundamental value standards amid rising debt levels and declining confidence in the fiat currency system.
Veteran investors also point out that this movement is far from over. Robert Kiyosaki predicts silver will exceed $80 by the end of 2026, and he has openly stated his intention to buy more up to $100, while sounding the alarm on reckless leveraged trading.
As a renowned author, this represents not short-term speculation, but a generational shift in the market's perception of 'reliability, scarcity, and financial risk,' as envisioned by Kiyo Sakaki.
Overall, the rise in gold and silver, coupled with the weak reaction from the U.S. dollar, suggests a quiet transition into a new market phase where the conventional wisdom of 'safe-haven assets' no longer applies.
