Stella's price has struggled for several months, declining by about 34% over the past three months. Despite this widespread downward trend, recent price movements have been stable, with XLM nearly flat over the past 24 hours. Fundamentally, multiple signals suggest that the downward momentum is not accelerating but rather weakening.
At the same time, Stella's real asset demand is expanding. Funds continue to flow into the network, and buying during dips remains active. Meanwhile, a bullish chart structure is also forming. Stella's real asset value has now risen to nearly 1 billion dollars, and the price is approaching a critical turning point.
The upward pattern is forming due to growing real-world demand
Stellar is currently forming an inverse triple top pattern on the daily chart. This structure often appears near market bottoms. The pattern indicates that selling pressure is gradually weakening and buyers are entering early at each decline. The left shoulder formed in November, the head in late December, and the right shoulder has now formed during the most recent correction.
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This structure began forming after December 31. Stellar rose by about 30%, then experienced a correction between January 6 and 9, but the overall trend remains intact.
In fact, this correction contributed to the formation of the right shoulder. The pattern's neckline is currently about 12% above the current price. A daily close above this level would confirm the breakout.
This scenario is further strengthened by actual network growth. Stellar's real asset value increased from approximately $890 million on December 31 to about $986 million in early January—a rise of roughly 10.8% in a short period, bringing the network close to the $1 billion mark.
This expansion in usage underpins price stability and provides solid confirmation for the bullish pattern.
Capital inflows and pullback buying are supporting the market foundation
To understand why this pattern is holding, examining capital flows is effective. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is an indicator that measures capital inflows and outflows into an asset.
When the CMF remains above zero, it indicates more capital inflow. In Stellar's case, despite recent price declines, the CMF has maintained a positive reading over the past few weeks.
This indicates steady capital inflow rather than distribution. This behavior aligns with the growing real asset value of Stellar. Capital inflows into the network are reflected in price data, suggesting that large investors may be building positions during downturns.
Pullback buying can also be confirmed using the Money Flow Index (MFI), a metric that assesses the strength of buying and selling pressure based on both price and volume. From late November to late December, Stellar's price continued to make lower lows, but during the same period, the MFI maintained higher highs and rose, indicating persistent buying pressure as buyers entered aggressively at each pullback.
As long as the MFI remains above 36, this pullback buying behavior will continue. Buyers are absorbing selling pressure and supporting the right shoulder of the pattern.
Key levels influencing Stellar's price movement
The upcoming technical price levels for Stellar are clear. If the daily close is above $0.254 (12% above the previous level), the inverse triple top breakout will be confirmed, with the target zone reaching around $0.33, which is 30% above the neckline.
On the other hand, the first key level to watch on the downside is $0.223. If this level is broken and closed below on the daily chart, the bullish structure could be undermined. If the price closes below $0.196, the pattern itself would become invalid.
Currently, Stellar's price is caught between stable capital inflows, active pullback buying, and a clear breakout level on the upside. Network usage is growing despite price stagnation. Whether XLM will rise from here depends on whether the price can catch up with the capital flowing into Stellar's network.
