XRP price has been trading above $2.08, but the breakout has not yet been confirmed. The reason lies not only in price weakness but also in timing. Over the past week, fund inflows into XRP spot ETFs have reached the lowest level since the launch, consistent with the weakening momentum.
At the same time, active buying by long-term holders has begun. This creates a conflict between institutional demand and long-term conviction, placing XRP at a crossroads.
XRP ETF inflows at lowest, pattern confirmation delayed
XRP still maintains a bullish inverse triple top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern remains valid, but the breakout is stalled. The price has surpassed $2.08 near the right shoulder, but it is still far from confirming the neckline.
This delay is closely tied to ETF data.
In the week leading up to January 9, the net inflow into spot XRP ETFs was only $38.07 millionâlowest weekly inflow since the launch, a drop of about 84% from the peak of approximately $244 million in late November. Timing is key.
XRPâs sharpest price drop occurred from January 6 to 9âprecisely when ETF demand was at its weakest.
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This move does not invalidate the bullish pattern itself. It explains why the breakout has not occurred. In an inverse triple top pattern, sustained buying demand near the neckline is essential. Since ETF inflows slowed down at the right shoulder stage, the price has stalled instead of accelerating.
Another complicating factor exists. The neckline (around $2.50 itself) is slightly upward sloping, meaning both price strength and sustained demand are required to confirm the move. Currently, support from the ETF side is missing.
Attention from supply zone accumulators is rapidly increasing
While ETF demand is weakening, another significant shift is also taking place.
From January 9 to 10, the net position change of XRP holders surged from approximately 62.4 million XRP to 239.5 million XRPâan increase of about 300% in 24 hours. This indicator reflects net accumulation by holders. Such a rapid increase suggests large-scale accumulation, not short-term trading.
This move may offset the slowdown in ETFs. While institutional ETF demand has temporarily stalled, long-term holders have stepped in aggressively to buy.
The cost-based heatmap shows where this buying pressure will encounter resistance.
The first major supply cluster is located between $2.14 and $2.15, with approximately 1.88 billion XRP accumulated. XRP is currently trading just below this zone. A close above this level would mark the first significant supply breakout.
Breaking through this massive cluster will require not only long-term holders' conviction but also renewed ETF support tomorrow.
Above this lies another crucial cluster, with approximately 1.62 billion XRP held between $2.48 and $2.50. This zone nearly aligns with the neckline of the inverse triple top. Breaking through here would go beyond a simple technical breakout, clearing a thick supply band held by two layers of long-term holders.
For this reason, even a temporary pause in ETFs did not lead to a price drop. Long-term accumulation absorbed selling pressure, and XRP has remained stable while the market waits for the next demand trigger.
Key price range influencing XRP's breakout
XRP price is currently caught between strong buying interest and a delay in confirmation. The next key levels to watch are clear.
The first level to watch is $2.15 (precisely $2.146). If this zone is broken above on the daily chart, XRP will surpass the recent supply cluster, indicating that accumulation by current holders is dominant.
Beyond that, $2.28 will come into focus. This level also coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. A breakthrough here would open the path toward the $2.42 level and then the neckline zone around $2.50.
If XRP clearly closes above $2.50, the inverse triple top breakout will be confirmed, potentially leading to a 34% rise from current levels.
On the downside, $2.06 serves as critical support. Breaking below this range would weaken the formation of the right shoulder and further delay the bullish structure, though it would not render it entirely invalid.
Currently, the XRP price has not invalidated the breakout. The situation remains in a wait-and-see state. Although ETF demand cooled at a critical moment, long-term holders are strongly supporting the price. Whether XRP can break out from here depends entirely on whether new demand can swiftly surpass $2.15 and then $2.50.
