Bitcoin held above the $90,000 level on Friday, as the latest U.S. employment report showed a slowdown in job growth but no clear signs of a sharp economic downturn.
This data has eliminated one key downside risk for the crypto market. However, conditions for a rapid recovery toward $100,000 are still not in place.
The U.S. employment data reduced recession risks
The U.S. economy added 50,000 new jobs in December, one of the weakest monthly increases in recent years. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, and the year-over-year wage growth remained strong at 3.8%.
The market interpreted this data as labor market cooling, but not collapse. As a result, risk assets including Bitcoin stabilized, and Bitcoin traded within the range of $89,000 to $92,000.
The slowdown in employment growth has reduced concerns about a hot economy forcing tighter monetary policy. Additionally, the risk of a broad market sell-off due to a sharp economic slowdown has eased.
This is significant for Bitcoin. Over the past year, crypto assets have sharply declined whenever there were signs of inflationary pressures or rapid economic slowdown, but this data shows neither of those.
The unemployment rate slightly decreased, and job growth has slowed. This combination suggests that while the momentum of the U.S. economy is weakening, it remains stable. It strengthens the observation of a 'soft landing' rather than a recession.
As a result, Bitcoin avoided a risk-off sell-off toward the low 80,000s.
"Bitcoin has already risen more than 7% year-to-date in 2026, and the path of least resistance is heading toward the psychological milestone of $100,000. If unemployment remains stable and inflation continues to moderate, we expect a clear breakout above $100,000 and a retest of the psychological milestone of $110,000, which was the previous all-time high. Reaching this level is crucial to demonstrate that investors are fully aware of the high valuation zone." (Matt Mena, Crypto Research Strategist at 21shares)
Reaching $100,000 for Bitcoin is difficult in the short term
While this data eliminates one downside risk, it did not generate any new upward catalysts.
A wage growth rate of 3.8% remains at a level that sustains the stickiness of service sector inflation. This gives the Fed room to maintain its current stance and does not prompt an early shift toward rate cuts.
Bitcoin has surged in environments where rate cuts or increased liquidity were priced in, but this data does not support that scenario.
Conversely, it supports a 'long-term hold' policy, limiting the possibility of a rapid surge to $100,000 driven by liquidity.
For Bitcoin to return to the six-digit range, future capital inflows and interest rate outlooks will become more important than employment data.
Continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could generate the demand needed to break through the resistance zone at $95,000. A clearer Federal Reserve rate-cutting stance would also serve as an upward catalyst.
Currently, employment data has allowed Bitcoin to stabilize around the $90,000 range. The risk of sudden macro shocks has also receded. However, a definitive catalyst toward a clear breakout above $100,000 is still not evident.
