$BTC ๐
$ETH ๐
$SOL Tomorrow, January 13th, is not an ordinary day for the market. Here are the three scenarios that whales and I are monitoring:
1. The "Bullish" Scenario (Low inflation: 2.5% or less)
- What would happen: If CPI comes in lower than expected, the market will confirm that inflation is dead.
- Whale reaction: They would buy massively. We'd see Bitcoin attempt to break through the $95,000 barrier almost instantly, as this guarantees the Fed will lower interest rates soon. Cheap money returns to the market.
2. The Consolidation Scenario (Expected inflation: 2.6% - 2.7%)
- This is what the market has already "priced in" (already expected).
- Bitcoin's price might give a quick spike (up and down rapidly to liquidate impatient traders) and then remain sideways. Whales would continue accumulating slowly, without urgency, waiting for the Fed meeting at the end of the month.
3. The Bearish Scenario (High inflation: 2.8% or more)
- This would be a cold shower. It would show that inflation is sticky and hard to bring down.
- They would sell part of their risk positions. Bitcoin could seek support at $88,000 or even $85,000. The tone would shift from celebration to extreme caution.
Given that energy prices have remained stable and consumption has slightly moderated after December's holidays, the most likely scenario is Scenario 2, leaning toward 1. I believe we'll see a data point that brings relief, but the real volatility will come from news about Jerome Powell. If the market feels the Fed is under political attack and inflation isn't dropping, that's when digital gold (Bitcoin) could shine as a safe haven.
Tomorrow, 30 minutes before the data release (8:30 AM New York time), the market will be chaotic. Do not trade during that time. Wait 15 minutes after the news to see where the real money is flowing.
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