๐จ FED WATCH: JANUARY 2026 IS NEARLY UPON US ๐จ
The initial FOMC session of 2026 is quickly approaching โ and following three consecutive interest rate reductions at the close of 2025, this decision could significantly influence market sentiment (including cryptocurrency) throughout the first quarter. Traders are feeling anxious, and the risk of volatility is increasing.
Hereโs a concise outline of the important details and aspects to monitor.
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IMPORTANT DATES
FOMC Meeting: Tuesday, January 27 โ Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Policy Announcement: Wednesday, January 28 at 2:00 PM ET
Powell's Press Conference: Wednesday, January 28 at 2:30 PM ET
(This press briefing often initiates significant market movement. )
๐ CURRENT MARKET EXPECTATIONS
As of January 11, current positioning indicates:
~81% probability the Fed will maintain rates at the 3.50% โ 3.75% level
~19% chance of an unexpected 25-basis point reduction if labor data shows further weakening
The challenge:
Core inflation (Core PCE) remains high around 2.7%, while job growth is beginning to slow. This places the Fed in a difficult situation โ and any indication of needing โmore timeโ could put pressure on risk assets, particularly altcoins.
๐ช CRYPTO MARKET OUTLOOK
FOMC dates are notorious for abrupt spikes, stop-loss hunts, and liquidations. Hereโs how markets typically respond:
๐ข Dovish Sentiment (Positive):
If Powell suggests more easing might happen in March or April:
โ Bitcoin could try to make a return towards the $95K level
โ Higher beta assets like
$SOL and smaller altcoins generally outperform
๐ด Hawkish Sentiment (Negative):
If the Fed expresses worries that inflation is stabilizing too high:
โ
$BTC could test support levels close to $88K
โ
$ETH and leveraged investments usually suffer the most
๐ง RISK MANAGEMENT ADVISORY
The initial reaction at 2:00 PM can be deceptive โ prices often reverse during the press conference at 2:30 PM.
High leverage combined with FOMC meetings can result in forced liquidations. It may be wise to lower exposure beforehand.
Keep an eye on the DXY (U. S. Dollar Index) โ a decline following the meeting typically bolsters crypto growth.
๐ FINAL TAKEAWAY
This meeting encompasses more than just a single interest rate decision โ it addresses guidance, tone, and future policy expectations.
Be ready for swift changes, misleading breakouts, and intense volatility.
React โ do not attempt to forecast.
Stay vigilant. ๐๐๐
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