$BTC FedWatch Market Probabilities (CME Tool)
Markets that track Fed funds futures — via the CME FedWatch Tool — are pricing the likelihood of policy changes at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Recent probability estimates show:
• Very high odds of no change (hold) at January 2026 meeting: Market models indicate that majorities of traders believe the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the current level rather than cut or raise them this week. �
Phemex
• Modest chances of future cuts later in 2026: Looking beyond January, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in early 2026 (e.g., March) is significantly higher than for January — reflecting some expectations that easing could return if inflation softens further and economic data weaken. �
Phemex
(Note: exact percentages vary across outlets, with some showing ~75–80% odds of a hold and sub-25% odds of a cut for the January meeting — but no strong expectation of a rate hike at this point.) �
MEXC
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