đ U.S. JOBS DATA: The Slowdown is Official
â The December 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report is out, and it confirms the trend weâve been tracking. The U.S. labor market is moving into a controlled cooling phase.
- âNon-Farm Payrolls: +50,000 jobs (Cooling vs. previous averages).
- âUnemployment Rate: 4.4% (Ticking down from November's 4.5%).
- âWage Growth: +0.3% MoM (Totaling +3.8% YoY).
âWhile the headline number came in slightly above the "whisper leaks" of 47k, the revisions tell the real story. October and November were revised down by a combined 76,000 jobs. This isn't a "strong" report; it's a labor market losing its inflationary heat.
âđ Why This Matters for $BTC & Crypto:
âSlower hiring reduces the pressure on the Fed to remain hawkish. While a January rate cut isn't "guaranteed" (odds currently sit around 5%â16%), the risk of further hikes or a "higher-for-longer" stance is evaporating.
âLiquidity Expectations: Crypto doesn't move on the data itselfâit moves on the liquidity that follows. A cooling economy forces the Fedâs path toward easing, which is the ultimate fuel for Bitcoin and Alts.
âThe "Soft Landing" Narrative:
We are in a Goldilocks zoneâweak enough to stop inflation, but not yet crashing into a deep recession.
ââ ď¸ The "Tariff Wildcard" đ
âWhile the jobs data is constructive, there is a massive shadow looming over the market that most retail traders are ignoring: The Trump Tariff Ruling.
âThe U.S. Supreme Court is currently deciding the fate of President Trump's emergency tariff powers. This is the missing piece of the puzzle for Januaryâs price action.
âIf Tariffs are Upheld: Expect continued supply-side inflation pressure and a stronger Dollar (DXY), which could cap $BTC gains.
âIf Tariffs are Overturned: We could see an immediate $150Bâ$200B liquidity injection into the economy via duty refunds.
âThe jobs data says "Buy the Dip," but the Tariff ruling says "Watch the Headlines." We are entering a high-volatility window where macro politics and labor data are about to collide.
