predictionmarket

Ukrainian authorities have moved to block the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, classifying it as unlicensed gambling. The National Commission for the State Regulation of Electronic Communications (NCEC) enforced the decision through Resolution No. 695, adding polymarket.com to the country’s public registry of prohibited websites. Internet providers are required to restrict access to the platform.

War-related markets draw criticism
Polymarket allows users to trade shares based on real-world events, with prices reflecting market probabilities. Ukrainian regulators argued that the platform qualifies as gambling because users stake money on uncertain outcomes for potential payouts.

The decision follows mounting ethical concerns over Ukraine-related markets. In 2025, Polymarket hosted hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers tied to the Russia–Ukraine war, including bets on the occupation of eastern cities. Open-source intelligence group DeepState accused Polymarket of using battlefield data via an unauthorized API to fuel speculation. By late December, completed Ukraine-related bets exceeded $270 million, with another $140 million active. Critics said the platform “monetizes human suffering” and gamifies conflict.

Uneven enforcement and regional scrutiny
Implementation of the ban has been inconsistent. While many users report being blocked, some can still access the platform. Ukraine’s actions reflect a wider European crackdown: Romania and France recently directed local providers to block Polymarket for operating without a gambling license and failing to provide consumer protections.

Return to the U.S. market
Despite regulatory hurdles abroad, Polymarket has relaunched in the U.S. under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. The platform’s new mobile app enables real-money sports markets, following its acquisition of a licensed crypto derivatives exchange.

Legal debate continues
Polymarket highlights the global uncertainty over prediction markets. Regulators often treat them as gambling, while supporters argue they aggregate information and provide probabilistic insights rather than games of chance. The Ukraine ban underscores the ongoing challenge for crypto platforms navigating international laws, licensing rules, and politically sensitive events.

#polymarket #ukraine #predictionmarket

Während der Markt noch stagnierte, gab es eine Information, die meine Aufmerksamkeit erregte: Polymarket befindet sich in Gesprächen zur Kapitalbeschaffung mit einer Bewertung von bis zu 12-15 Milliarden USD. Eine enorme Zahl, die es in die Reihen der wertvollsten Krypto-Projekte auf dem Markt bringt.
Warum wird also eine Plattform, die auf reale Ereignisse "wetten" kann, so hoch bewertet?

Die Natur des Problems: Polymarket ist nicht nur eine Wettplattform. Es ist ein Prognosemarkt, auf dem die Geldströme und Handelsvolumina die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Ereignisses in der realen Welt widerspiegeln, von Politik, Wirtschaft bis Kultur. Es verwandelt "Glauben" in eine handelbare Art von Vermögen.