4year

​Crypto Twitter absolutely lost its mind calling October 6th the cycle peak. Eighty-four percent crashes incoming! Bear market confirmed! Seriously, pack it up, right?
​WRONG. The math says these guys are catastrophically wrong.
​Every indicator that’s always nailed the top is totally silent. The Pi Cycle? Untriggered. It's sitting at $114k when the real threshold is way up at $205,600. Three cycles, perfect accuracy, and today? Nothing.
MVRV Z-Score is chilling at 2.06—miles below the 5.0 euphoria zone that marked every single prior peak.​Supply in Profit is 83.6%.Puell Multiple is 0.95—textbook undervalued status.
​These aren't broken indicators; they’re screaming mid-cycle consolidation while 'influencers' are calling the top. Seriously?
​🤯 Here's What Killed the Pattern
​Wall Street. That’s it. Institutions vacuumed up $64 billion through ETFs this year. BlackRock, Fidelity, corporate treasuries—they’ve bought every single whale dump and haven't even flinched. When retail ran the cycles, emotion drove the price. Now, settlement drives it.
​The old rhythm is broken. Bitcoin’s correlation to M2 money supply collapsed from 0.8 to a negative 0.18 in 2025. It literally decoupled from monetary policy overnight, and now its correlation to Gold is spiking at 0.85. It’s a hedge asset now, folks. The halving rhythm is irrelevant the second those $64 billion institutional flows hit.
​The correlation between institutional inflows and price stability is 0.82—that's mathematical causation. When Wall Street handles the absorption, an 80% crash needs a macro catastrophe, not some tired chart pattern. A 2017-style collapse now demands BlackRock and all the other institutions simultaneously liquidate their collateral. That's geopolitical Armageddon, not a technical event.
​📊 The New Rules of the Game
​November 7th saw a quick $240 million flood back in, instantly reversing six days of outflows. Institutional hold rates are still at 99.5%—they just shrug at the volatility that used to wipe out retail.
​The old playbook said cycles end when sentiment peaks. This one ends when absorption reverses. That needs sustained ETF outflows exceeding $2 billion weekly coupled with a recession. We see neither.
​Fidelity’s models, not hopium, suggest a 65% chance of 50% to 100% gains by Q4 2026. This is quantitative analysis based on supply dynamics that never existed before.
​🔮 My Scenarios
Evolved Bull (65% Probability): Indicators stretch, inflows stay above $5 billion weekly. Price targets $150,000 to $200,000 by late 2026.​Bear Reversion (25% Probability): Macro shock triggers $2 billion weekly outflows, M2 correlation bounces back above 0.6. We see a sub-$80,000 collapse.Consolidation (10% Probability): Flows flatline, we're range-bound between $100,000 and $130,000 if the dollar index punches past 110.
​Proof I'm Wrong? Sustained outflows above $2 billion weekly for four straight weeks, OR traditional indicators flash a top while inflows stay above $5 billion weekly.
​The four-year cycle didn't top out. It evolved. Retail emotion is out; institutional settlement is in. Time-based models are broken because absorption dynamics took over.
​Position accordingly, or just spectate permanently. $BTC #BTC #bitcoin #CryptoNews #NewsAboutCrypto #4year