#Bitcoin has just fallen below its True Market Mean for the first time in about 2.5 years.
This is an important on chain level.
The True Market Mean represents the average price where coins have actually moved on chain. It reflects the cost basis of the market, not speculation.
The last time Bitcoin traded below this level was July 2023, when BTC was around $29,000.
Now it’s happening again, but at $78,000.
What this tells us is simple:
Bitcoin is now trading below the average holder’s cost. A large part of the market is underwater.
Historically, this zone has marked periods of stress, forced selling, and exhaustion. Weak hands usually exit here. Long-term holders usually start accumulating here.
It doesn’t mean price instantly reverses.
It means Bitcoin has entered a phase where risk shifts from upside to downside for sellers, not buyers.
When price stays below the True Market Mean, it shows fear. When it moves back above it, confidence usually returns.
