Polymarket is now pricing an 85% chance of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31.
Read that again.
85%.
If you forgot what a shutdown actually does, remember 2025 ⬇️
• 43-day shutdown
• -2.8% GDP impact
• $34 BILLION wiped out
• 670,000 federal workers sent home
That’s not politics.
That’s real economic damage.
⚠️ Here’s why the odds are spiking right now:
After the Minneapolis Border Patrol shooting, Democrats are threatening to block the DHS funding bill in the Senate.
And that’s the fuse.
If DHS funding stalls → a partial shutdown clock starts ticking straight into the deadline.
A shutdown isn’t just “people staying home” 👇
• Paychecks get delayed
• Contracts freeze
• Approvals stall
• Data stops flowing
Uncertainty slows the economy before anything officially breaks.
📉 Market reaction is always the same:
1️⃣ Bonds move first
2️⃣ Stocks react later
3️⃣ Crypto moves the hardest and the fastest
Right now?
Almost no one is watching.
Markets are not pricing this risk yet.
But they will.
And when they do…
volatility won’t ask for permission.
$BTC 🚨
