vaneck

📅 January 10 | Bitcoin
Talking about a Bitcoin valued at millions of dollars no longer elicits the same nervous laughter it did a decade ago. What once sounded like maximalist delusion is now beginning to appear in reports signed by traditional asset managers.

📖VanEck published its analysis this week titled “Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions”, a valuation framework that projects Bitcoin’s potential role through 2050. The study was prepared by Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at the firm, along with Patrick Bush, senior analyst, and presents a base-case scenario in which a single Bitcoin would reach a value of approximately $2.9 million, implying an annualized return of approximately 15% over the next 25 years.
The firm is careful to clarify that this is not a “target price,” but rather a structural valuation exercise. Unlike stocks or bonds, Bitcoin doesn't generate cash flow or dividends, so VanEck chooses to model its value based on adoption scenarios and economic utility. The core of the argument rests on the possibility that Bitcoin will evolve into an international settlement asset, capable of absorbing between 5% and 10% of global trade as a neutral settlement layer, especially in an increasingly geopolitically fragmented world.
Another pillar of the analysis is the hypothesis that, over time, central banks and large institutions will begin to allocate a small fraction of their reserves to Bitcoin. Not as a replacement for sovereign currencies, but as a tool for strategic diversification against long-term monetary and fiscal risk. VanEck acknowledges that this scenario is marginal today, since Bitcoin barely participates in international trade and isn't included in official reserves, but he maintains that major financial changes tend to materialize slowly and then accelerate.
Don't ignore the risks of its extreme volatility. Bitcoin is projected to maintain an annualized volatility between 40% and 70%, comparable to frontier markets rather than traditional assets. Even so, even in his most conservative scenario, VanEck estimates positive long-term returns, arguing that Bitcoin's structural relevance will continue to grow, driven by its programmed scarcity, political neutrality, and censorship resistance.

Topic Opinion:
Bitcoin is no longer analyzed solely as a trade or a speculative hedge, but as a potential monetary infrastructure. This forces an uncomfortable conversation: if Bitcoin doesn't fail, then something in the current system will. VanEck's scenario demands regulation, political acceptance, and a profound transformation of the international financial order.
💬 Is this scenario a realistic projection or an overly optimistic extrapolation?

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