📉 Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle — Is a Bottom Around $30,000 Coming? 🔍
The idea of a 4-year cycle in Bitcoin comes from how past halving events → bull runs → corrections have rhythmically repeated.
Historically, BTC has experienced deep sell-offs after major peaks:
• After 2013 it fell ~85%
• After 2017 it sank ~84%
• After 2021 it dropped ~77%
If similar extreme drawdowns repeat, some analysts argue Bitcoin could eventually retest levels far lower than current prices — even toward $30,000–$40,000 territory in a full-cycle bottom scenario.
But there’s no consensus:
📌 Some models suggest BTC may bottom higher, e.g., around $60k+, with the cycle simply entering a long consolidation phase before the next leg up.
📌 Others warn that price bounces so far might be temporary rallies rather than a real bottom, meaning lower prices could still materialize later in the cycle.
📌 Some argue the classic 4-year cycle may no longer be as rigid due to market maturity, macro influences, and structural shifts in liquidity.
📌 Meanwhile, psychological indicators (like fear sentiment spiking) often show contrarian signals near major lows — sometimes before price actually bottoms.
$BTC 💡 Bottom Line:
The 4-year cycle is a useful historical pattern — but it doesn’t guarantee future bottoms at specific levels like $30K. Cycle structures evolve, and macro forces (rates, liquidity, derivatives flows) can alter the path. Whether $30K becomes a real bottom price or simply a theoretical extreme, traders should watch multiple signals — not just cycle timing — before calling a market low.
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