🏛️ FED DRAMA IGNORED BY CRYPTO, BUT GOLD SURGES: What Traders Need to Know
While Washington buzzes with political pressure and a criminal probe into the Federal Reserve, crypto markets are staying remarkably calm. Here’s what the data tells us—and what could come next.
Prediction Markets Say: Powell Stays Put
Polymarket shows only an 8% chance Powell steps down as Fed Chair by March 31.
Even by late May, a 67% probability is priced for his eventual Board exit—not an early ousting.
Kalshi markets reflect similar restraint, with just ~19% odds he’s out before May 2026.
Markets Are Voting with Their Capital
Bitcoin stable near $91,400**, **Ethereum** holding **$3,125.
· No panic, no rush to reposition—crypto traders aren’t betting on imminent Fed upheaval.
· Gold, however, tells a different story: surging past $4,580/oz, with silver up 4.5%+.
What’s Really Moving Metals?
This could be:
· Traders hedging against future looser monetary policy
· A decoupling from prediction markets, anticipating policy shifts after Powell
· Classic safe-haven flow amid geopolitical and political uncertainty
Who’s Next in Line?
Prediction markets point to Kevin Warsh as favorite for next Fed Chair (43% probability). His publicly stated views hint at a hawkish shift:
· Blames inflation on government spending & central bank overreach
· Advocates for smaller Fed, reduced balance sheet, strict price stability
Crypto Takeaways:
1. Stability is a statement—BTC/ETH ignoring Fed noise shows market maturity.
2. Watch gold—if metals keep rallying while crypto consolidates, rotation into crypto may follow.
3. Post-Powell policy could be more dollar-positive, rate-hawkish—potentially pressure risk assets short-term.
Crypto isn’t reacting because smart money doesn’t see an immediate Fed shake-up. But the longer-term picture—leadership change, policy overhaul—could redefine liquidity, inflation trades, and safe-haven flows into 2026
#Fed #JeromePowell #KevinWarsh #MonetaryPolicy #Bitcoin
#Ethereum #Gold #Inflation #MarketUpdate $ETH