$BTC | Daily Update
We’re bouncing right now after sweeping the prior monthly low. That part matters.
But what really caught my eye? We front-ran the 2025 yearly low at 74.4k. That usually doesn’t happen for no reason. To me, it screams one thing: downside liquidity is still being built… before it gets fully taken.
If price manages to hold this area, a push back toward 80.5k makes sense. That’s the obvious retest.
But context matters — we’re still in a downtrend, and the bear flag already broke. This move down has all the traits of a VRD (Vertical Run Down). And if you’ve traded enough of these, you know the rule:
no deep pullbacks. Just sharp moves, shallow pauses, then continuation.
Because of that, a rejection around 80.5k followed by another leg lower is the base case.
That said — and this is important — there’s still imbalance sitting up at 83.9k–84.5k, left behind during the selloff. So if 80.5k doesn’t cap price cleanly, this “bearish retest” can stretch higher than most people expect, straight into that imbalance zone. Markets love unfinished business.
On the downside, the zone I’m watching closely is 70,876 – 69,284.
Why there?
• measured move of the bear flag completes
• Wave 5 of the daily bearish count lines up
• technically + structurally, things converge there
That area feels like a place we could get a short-term relief bounce. Not a bottom call. Just a pause. Maybe some chop. Then we reassess.
For now, 83.9k–84.5k is the maximum upside I’m willing to entertain.
If price gets there, it must reject — otherwise the whole downside continuation thesis starts to weaken.
Bias stays bearish.
Until the market proves otherwise.
