Bitcoin surged nearly 3% to around $65,000 on Tuesday, snapping a pattern that had frustrated traders for weeks — the infamous early U.S. session sell-off.
For much of November, market participants noticed a recurring trend: as U.S. equities opened at 9:30 a.m. ET, Bitcoin’s overnight gains would often fade within the first hour. Some traders even labeled it the “10 a.m. algo.”
But this time? The pattern didn’t show up.
Instead, BTC pushed higher — lifting total crypto market capitalization by roughly 2.7% in 24 hours.
So what changed?
📉 The “10 A.M.” Pattern Explained
Since early November, Bitcoin reportedly declined during the first hour of U.S. equity trading in more than 60% of sessions — sometimes dropping as much as 3%.
For example, on Dec. 4, BTC slid 2.1% within minutes of the S&P 500 opening flat.
The consistent timing fueled speculation:
Was this structural market flow?
Was it institutional rebalancing?
Or something more coordinated?
🏦 Jane Street Speculation Goes Viral
Online debate intensified when speculation tied the move to Jane Street, a major quantitative trading firm active across global markets.
Investor Mike Alfred claimed on X that an alleged internal source suggested Jane Street had ordered an “immediate cessation” of manipulative Bitcoin trading and shut down a “10 a.m. algo.”
No evidence has confirmed such a strategy.
Jane Street has not verified the claim.
There is no independent proof.
Still, the rumor spread quickly — and sentiment shifted.
⚖️ TerraUSD Legal Pressure Resurfaces
The speculation comes as Jane Street faces renewed scrutiny tied to the 2022 collapse of Terraform Labs and its algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD, along with sister token Luna.
The Terra collapse erased roughly $40 billion in market value and remains one of crypto’s most significant systemic failures.
Jane Street has denied allegations related to insider trading and manipulation, calling them baseless.
📊 A More Grounded Explanation: Market Structure
Before jumping to conclusions, it’s important to understand how markets function.
Here’s what typically happens around 10 a.m. ET:
• U.S. equities open at 9:30 a.m.
• Liquidity deepens rapidly
• Cross-asset desks rebalance exposure
• Economic data often drops at 10 a.m.
Bitcoin trades 24/7 — but liquidity shifts between Asia, Europe, and the U.S. can exaggerate order-book moves when American participation increases.
Additionally, BTC recently showed ~95% correlation with the S&P 500, suggesting macro alignment played a bigger role than conspiracy.
📈 Technical Setup Supported the Bounce
Beyond narratives, the technical backdrop favored a relief rally:
• RSI near 30 (oversold territory)
• Strong correlation with equities
• Broader risk appetite improving
Key levels to watch:
✅ Hold above $64,000 support
🚧 Break above $66,535 (7-day SMA resistance)
⚠️ Failure could expose $60,000 support
🧠 Narrative vs. Reality
The “10 a.m. dump” story captured trader imagination — but markets are rarely that simple.
Price action is often driven by:
Liquidity shifts
Macro data
Cross-asset flows
Technical positioning
For now, Bitcoin’s rebound appears more aligned with macro and technical factors than confirmed institutional strategy changes.
Whether the pattern is truly broken — or merely paused — remains to be seen.
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